New Study predicts Mumbai may be Submerged by 2050

An international study by Climate Central published in the journal of Nature Communications predicts that by the year 2050, large portions of the Mumbai city and its suburbs may be underwater if emissions are not kept in check.

Crux of the Matter

1. Climate Central studied the effects of sea level rise globally using artificial intelligence and satellite imagery to create revised projections for 2030, 2050, and 2100 under different emission scenarios.

2. Stretches of central Mumbai, coastal areas along Navi Mumbai and Thane, and all of Vasai-Virar and Mira Bhayander are at “critical risk”.

3. The study found Mumbai’s green zones that include Sanjay Gandhi National Park, Aarey Milk Colony, Powai, Andheri, Borivali, Kandivali, Mulund, Thane, and Bhiwandi are likely to survive the rise in sea level.

4. Isolated parts of south Mumbai and other marginally-elevated zones do not face much risk.

5. It predicts that cities like Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City and Alexandria may get submerged and lost to rising waters.

Curiopedia

Rise in Sea Levels – Since at least the start of the 20th century, the average global sea level has been rising. Between 1900 and 2016, the sea level rose by 16–21 cm. More precise data gathered from satellite radar measurements reveal an accelerating rise of 7.5 cm from 1993 to 2017, which is a trend of roughly 30 cm per century. This acceleration is due mostly to human-caused global warming, which is driving thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of land-based ice sheets and glaciers. Between 1993 and 2018, thermal expansion of the oceans contributed 42% to sea level rise; the melting of temperate glaciers, 21%; Greenland, 15%; and Antarctica, 8%. Climate scientists expect the rate to further accelerate during the 21st century. Projecting future sea level is challenging, due to the complexity of many aspects of the climate system. As climate research into past and present sea levels leads to improved computer models, projections have consistently increased. A conservative estimate of the long-term projections is that each Celsius degree of temperature rise triggers a sea level rise of approximately 2.3 meters over a period of two millennia, an example of climate inertia. More Info

Curated Coverage

1. Hindustan Times – Rising seas to wipe out much of Mumbai by 2050, warns study

2. Gulf News – Mumbai at risk of being wiped out by rising seas: Study

3. News 18 – Much of Mumbai at Risk of Being Wiped Out by Rising Seas by 2050, Says New Research

4. Financial Express – Ominous signs! Mumbai facing ‘wipe-out’ risk due to rise in sea-levels, says study

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